[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 142342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142341 
MTZ000-150145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND W-CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 142341Z - 150145Z

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS ACROSS WRN/W-CENTRAL MT THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. OVERALL EXTENT OF THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO
REQUIRE WATCH ISSUANCE. 

MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS FAR NRN ID/NWRN
MT. EXIT REGION OF ASSOCIATED 50-60KT 500MB JET HAS REACHED WRN
MT...AND WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO WRN/W-CENTRAL MT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW
80S AT LOWER ELEVATION SITES ACROSS SWRN MT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 

VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT ON SERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS DESPITE LOW
INSTABILITY VALUES. COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG VIL
CORES. ALSO...35-40F SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXIST FROM THE ERN
SLOPES OF THE WRN MT MOUNTAINS EWD INTO W-CENTRAL MT. EVAPORATIVELY
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AS WELL AS RELATIVELY FAST STORM MOTIONS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS CONVECTION TRACKS ENEWD AT 40KT.

..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

45111188 45391267 46661355 47311393 47711397 47891355
48091300 48351154 48291066 47840989 46670926 45810926
45520964 45301097 

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