[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141948
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141948 
TXZ000-NMZ000-142145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141948Z - 142145Z

ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED ACROSS
SWRN TX AND PERHAPS FAR SERN NM THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT HOURS.
A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR THIS
AREA...HOWEVER OVERALL RISK IS LIKELY TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM MORNING MCS OVER NWRN TX HAS CONTINUED TO
PROPAGATE SWWD. AT 1930Z...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM 15W HOB
TO 30S MAF TO 20S SJT. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SWRN TX HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ...FOCUSED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW...IS
PROCESSING MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK /LESS THAN 20KT/
AND CONTINUED SWWD PROPAGATION OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT
INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...LIMITING CELL LONGEVITY. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF/LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD MIGRATE SWWD TO ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AROUND 2130Z.

..BANACOS.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30169905 29769992 30220258 31280388 32660400 32650311
31730226 31330127 31099965 30599923 

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