[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141834 
MIZ000-WIZ000-142030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER MI...ERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 141834Z - 142030Z

HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOW AN UPPER-LOW
ACROSS ERN MN WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MOVING NWD INTO UPPER
MI. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS ASCENT
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SFC TEMPS IN THE
70S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS BELOW
-10C AND MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

45948678 45478683 43728760 43328843 43548937 44118986
46128928 46408860 46318737 

WWWW