[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140304 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW AR INTO SRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 473...

VALID 140304Z - 140400Z

ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  NEW WW
MAY BE NEEDED BY 04Z.

LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE PERSISTS NEAR INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND HAS BEEN A FOCUS FOR NEWER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS BAND OF STRONG FORCING ON SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY
LIFTS ACROSS THE OZARKS.  THIS FORCING WILL CONTINUE EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  WITH LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINING WARM/MOIST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/ SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...UNAFFECTED BY PRIOR
CONVECTION...ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS EVOLVING EAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MAY BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  GIVEN MODERATE FLOW
FIELDS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD POOL AS IT SPREADS NEAR/NORTH OF WEST PLAINS
INTO THE FARMINGTON/POPLAR BLUFF AREAS BY 06Z.

..KERR.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36529267 37029241 37559168 37999135 37939009 38088897
36758979 36369071 36169180 36169255 36259297 

WWWW