[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 140149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140148 
WIZ000-MNZ000-140315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478...

VALID 140148Z - 140315Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE ERN/NRN PORTIONS OF
WW 478 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EWD
INTO WRN WI AND THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EITHER A NEW
WW OR REPLACEMENT WW THAT WOULD ENCOMPASS PARTS OF ERN MN.

RECENT MPX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
SUFFICIENT THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
OVER ECENTRAL/SERN MN. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF
SWRN/SCENTRAL MN AND THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED IN THE NEXT
STATUS REPORT. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY 02-03Z OVER
WCENTRAL/CENTRAL MN AS COLD OUTFLOW AIR WILL UNDERCUT CONVECTION
THAT FLARED UP OVER THE REGION SINCE 00Z. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT AS CONVECTION OVER SERN/ECENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO BECOME
ORGANIZED IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SVR HAIL THREAT AS
IT MOVES INTO WCENTRAL/NWRN WI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS. THUS A NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NEEDED BY
03Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

43639262 43689129 44459073 45469105 46039193 46449272
46249354 46079471 45929536 45539594 45029586 44949579
45299500 45089403 43649340 

WWWW