[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122047 
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS/NRN TX PANHANDLE/OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122047Z - 122215Z

THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAMAR TO NORTH OF DALHART WHICH
HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND
PROFILES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN THIS REGION...SO THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE STORM MODES. BUBBLE HIGH OVER SW KS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
POOL IS STABILIZING THE REGION. HOWEVER STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE CO. MAIN THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE LARGE
HAIL OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA
AFFECTED...AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS TO THE
EAST.

..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

35240202 36130295 38280298 38280110 36900061 35630042 

WWWW