[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122241 
OKZ000-TXZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NW/N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...465...

VALID 122241Z - 130045Z

CONTINUE WWS.  ADDITIONAL WWS MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF 464 AND 465
WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SURGE INTO
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  FRONT IS STALLING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 44...JUST
AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW SHIFTING ACROSS
WEST TEXAS.  WITH 30 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS...EVOLUTION OF LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL.  AS HEAVY RAIN
CORE GROWS...INCREASING EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEPENING
EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  WAVE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST AHEAD OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE BEST
FOCUS/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

OTHER INTENSE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE...JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
LUBBOCK INTO THE CHILDRESS AREA.  ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER FEW HOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 
THEREAFTER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH
DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...POSSIBLY MERGING WITH
OKLAHOMA STORM CLUSTER...FORMING MORE EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE BY
02-03Z.

..KERR.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32480095 33210094 33950067 34270019 34669953 35099874
35789806 35979772 36079685 35939614 35539603 34939655
34639697 33839810 33259841 33189889 32249956 31950026
32140078 

WWWW