[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122029 
OKZ000-TXZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS INTO NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 464...

VALID 122029Z - 122200Z

THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
FROM THE ERN S PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AND W
OF U.S. 83.

AS OF 2025Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ALONG DRYLINE FROM BRISCOE SWD THROUGH CROSBY COUNTIES IN W TX
WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG.
DESPITE A PERSISTENT VEERING TO BACKING WIND PATTERN BELOW 2 KM AGL
ON THE JAYTON PROFILER...FLOW IN THE 4-7 KM AGL LAYER HAS STEADILY
INCREASED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE. 

FARTHER TO THE N...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AND W-CNTRL OK WHICH
IN TURN IS REINFORCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING SWD THROUGH I-40
CORRIDOR OF WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL.

THROUGH 22-23Z...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE FROM
E OF LBB INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WELL REMOVED FROM MCS COLD
POOL.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

35150173 36369815 33869820 32650175 

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