[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122002 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN MO INTO NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 122002Z - 122100Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 1947Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS FROM LYON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL/SERN KS
SWWD INTO OSAGE...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL OK. SERN KS
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ CURRENTLY EXIST
OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS...TO THE S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR EMP
ESEWD INTO W-CNTRL MO APPROXIMATELY 40S SZL. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NWRN
QUARTER OF MO IS COMPARABLY MORE STABLE...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD IS
INCREASING IN A NARROW N-S AXIS FROM SW OF OJC TO E OF FNB.

EXTRAPOLATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVEMENT SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE
THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP E/SE OF WW 465 PRIOR TO 21Z. APPEARS
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE FROM
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SWD ACROSS FAR SWRN MO INTO NERN OK
WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...

38809504 39009486 39029408 38589333 37779334 36759376
36069463 35649566 35689637 36039647 36539577 37009502 

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