[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121843 
KSZ000-COZ000-122015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121843Z - 122015Z

POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST
WITH ONGOING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WRN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF TSTMS FROM
ADAMS/ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SSEWD INTO LINCOLN COUNTY IN ERN CO.
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT EMERGING FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH. DIABATIC
HEATING HAS ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS OVER ERN CO TO BECOME WEAKLY
TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES
OF 500-1000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
ACROSS SERN CO...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND VORTICITY ALONG/E OF TROUGH AXIS OVER
E-CNTRL INTO NERN CO.

GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMBIENT VORTICITY...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

38160393 39430450 40410476 40770412 40880323 40590268
40060217 39400193 38570192 37820224 37500264 37500306
37500328 37580366 37810382 

WWWW