[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121403 
TXZ000-OKZ000-121500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/N TX INTO SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121403Z - 121500Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY AS THEY BECOME
MORE SURFACE-BASED LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1350Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
INTENSIFYING STORMS BETWEEN ABI AND MWL NWD TO S OF SPS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM NRN MEXICO...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE. 12Z FWD SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE THAT
THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
MARGINALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED CURRENTLY ON
DYESS AFB VWP IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE W.

THEREFORE...EXPECT ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL AND INHERENT SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS N TX
INTO SRN OK AS BOUNDARY-LAYER WARMS AND THESE STORMS BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED. SHOULD ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

33250008 34509931 34329758 33499728 32539800 32049848
32009936 32450004 32820021 

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