[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 121003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121003 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-121230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM....PANHANDLES OF TX/OK...EXTREME NWRN OK
AND SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 121003Z - 121230Z

ACARS/WATER VAPOR SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER
TROUGH WAS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD FROM SRN CO/CNTRL NM
TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  SURFACE REFLECTION/COLD FRONT
PASSED CLINES CORNERS NM AROUND 08Z AND APPEARS TO BE TRANSLATING
EWD INTO ECNTRL NM ATTM.  RECENT RADAR SHOWS A FEW RETURNS
DEVELOPING VCNTY THIS FRONT WEST OF CLOVIS NM. OTHER STORMS...BEING
AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ...EXTEND EWD INTO
THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES...ALONG/N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE
HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  BASED ON THE 00Z RAOBS AND
CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED BUOYANCY
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE VALUES.  GIVEN
THE APPROACH OF THE ASCENT...IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM FROM ECNTRL NM NEWD TOWARD EXTREME
NWRN OK AND SWRN KS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  EWD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY TEND TO TRAIN NEWD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS CURRENTLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS. 
BUT...LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS
/ALREADY NOTED ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. 
DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR...MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING.

A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED IF TSTMS SHOW SIGNS OF SUSTAINED ORGANIZATION.

..RACY.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

34000429 35250348 37050178 37710056 37339999 36779957
34360057 33640284 

WWWW