[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120311 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-120415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...TX PNHDL...WRN OK...SRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 462...

VALID 120311Z - 120415Z

NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 04Z...PRIMARILY
FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...POSSIBLY
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

AS VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF BROADER
SCALE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH OVERNIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION...
PIVOTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS
OCCURS...STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THUS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...AS HEAVIER RAIN CORES BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE
 NEXT FEW HOURS...UNSATURATED MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURST AND EASTWARD SURGING
OUTFLOW INTO/ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS EVENING.

OTHER VIGOROUS STORMS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST ABOVE SURFACE
COLD POOL NEAR THE AMARILLO AREA A BIT LONGER THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO FORM ON
STALLING SYNOPTIC EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

35880516 36300445 36370255 36660128 36770073 37239979
37599924 37669798 36979751 36309794 35389856 34279993
34120046 34150165 34480158 34750168 34700229 34680271
35030294 35460241 35960232 35860312 35630438 35660522 

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