[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112228 
TXZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112228Z - 120030Z

WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS STORMS MAY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
AND SLOW TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR/EAST OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...WHERE HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING HAVE OVERCOME
INHIBITION.  INFLUENCE OF FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF JET SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS FROM WEST OF THE
PECOS RIVER INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS APPEAR
LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING...BUT STRONG
TURNING FROM LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO UPPER WESTERLIES IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 
IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
4000 J/KG...VERY LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF FORT STOCKTON.

..KERR.. 06/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

29360290 30220353 31270288 31830269 31580194 30610178
30000193 29830215 

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