[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112254 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-120100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NW..N CNTRL OK AND PARTS OF SRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112254Z - 120100Z

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...IS COMING
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  ZONE OF STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT APPEARS TO EXTEND ALONG AN AXIS JUST SOUTH OF GAGE
OK INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF PONCA CITY...WHERE INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z.  

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
INCREASING FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
THIS EVENING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW LIKELY
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. AS CLUSTER BEGINS TO EXPAND...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY
RAIN CORES WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RISK OF DOWNBURSTS AND FORMATION
OF BROADER SCALE OUTFLOWS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 06/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

37069931 37419804 37639692 37539602 36549598 36089689
35899777 35569879 35459951 35750001 36689997 

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