[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092011 
OKZ000-092215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH WRN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441...

VALID 092011Z - 092215Z

GREATER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE TORNADO WATCH
OVER WRN OK. SOME POTENTIAL...THOUGH SOMEWHAT REDUCED...STILL EXISTS
FOR A STORM OR TWO TO REDEVELOP OVER CNTRL OK. 

THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM WRN AR NEAR FORT
SMITH WWD TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NW TO E OF GAGE. PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL OK HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND STORMS
HAVE DISSIPATED. ALSO THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS BECOME MORE FOCUSED
FARTHER W FROM NWRN OK INTO WRN KS. GIVEN THESE LIMITING
FACTORS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...THE CAP HAS UNDERGONE SOME WEAKENING AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPE NEAR
4000 J/KG EXISTS. IF A STORM OR TWO MANAGES TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD
LIKELY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

34839600 34759796 35439816 36249721 35649562 

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