[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092058 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-092300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092058Z - 092300Z

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR
A WW BY 22Z.

INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL
NEB/SCENTRAL SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND
2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO SCENTRAL SD.

FARTHER EAST...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND FAR
SERN SD ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE
BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS/ IN THIS AREA AS EVIDENT
BY 20Z MRR PROFILER AND FSD VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF SURFACE
BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

44009819 44059522 43389400 42799364 41949570 41849665
41979856 42159989 42540053 43560042 

WWWW