[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091943 
TXZ000-NMZ000-092145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM THROUGH W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091943Z - 092145Z

SERN NM THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS BEGIN
TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA.

DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE JUST W OF AMARILLO SWWD INTO
EXTREME SERN NM THEN SWD TO JUST E OF FORT STOCKTON. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND W OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEEP MIXING IS OCCURRING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
SHOULD MOVE EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT AND
MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT GIVEN SHEAR THROUGH A
DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

32210283 33230326 33840310 34860225 35590154 34900087
33180163 31080174 31010242 

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