[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091935 
MIZ000-WIZ000-092130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO ERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091935Z - 092130Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN WI/PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/NWRN LOWER MI IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

WELL DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WI
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BLR PROFILER SHOWS MID LEVEL
SWLY FLOW HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. APX VWP DATA SHOWS 5 KM
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KTS. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI.

FARTHER WEST OVER ERN WI IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD DOES NOT ADVANCE TOO
RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH 21Z...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
PRESENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE CASE ONLY IF REMAINING CINH IS REMOVED
AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...

44698667 43698912 43158944 42558886 42528876 42548629
43158473 43658364 44848361 45508411 45288502 

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