[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091832 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH ERN OK PANHANDLE...NERN TX PANHANDLE
AND NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091832Z - 092100Z

WRN KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS BY 21Z. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 21Z. 

THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE NEARLY STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM CNTRL OK NWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN NWD INTO WRN KS. A SURFACE
LOW  EXIST OVER SWRN KS WITH THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WRN OK AND WRN KS AND IS ADVECTING RICHER MOISTURE NWD WHERE IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY RECOVERED INTO THE
MID 60S OVER MUCH OF WRN KS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM
3000 TO 4000 J/KG IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE 18Z RAOB
FROM AMA SHOWED LITTLE CAP REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 80S. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX EWD AND MIGHT EVENTUALLY
MERGE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF DRYLINE AND OR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY.
THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED AS STORMS MOVE EWD AND OVER
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING
IN LARGER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..DIAL.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

36319909 35430021 35840098 39000134 39320044 37689995 

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