[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091815 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0115 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL NY...VT/NH AND WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091815Z - 092015Z

TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA POSES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT
MUCAPES WERE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE REGION. TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN
ONTARIO EWD ACROSS NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO SWRN ME. AN UPPER
WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AFOREMENTIONED E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30 KTS/ THUS...GIVEN
VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TYPE STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR TYPE
STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTIONS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/09/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

44767143 45097330 44757519 44267574 43877574 43257448
43337273 43227153 43577051 44017015 44627062 

WWWW