[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082112
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082112 
ILZ000-MOZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN IL AND PORTIONS OF ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438...

VALID 082112Z - 082315Z

WELL DEFINED COLD POOL EVIDENT OVER WCENTRAL IL/NERN MO WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED SEWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH MUCH OF WW 438
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
NERN/ECENTRAL IL...HOWEVER CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SVR
THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY BE WANING.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GUST FRONT MOVING SEWD AT 35 KTS ACROSS
ECENTRAL MO/WCENTRAL IL NEAR THE STL METRO AREA. NEW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED SVR THREAT WITH
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA AND INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 438 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND
STRENGTH OF LINE...A NEW WW OVER SERN MO/SRN IL MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  FARTHER NORTH...THE GUST FRONT WAS SURGING EAST OF
CONVECTION OVER ERN IL. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...SVR THREAT
WOULD LIKELY BE MITIGATED OVER THIS REGION BEFORE 00Z.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

41608879 40938922 39998955 39099069 39149158 37919157
37349158 39408761 42008759 

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