[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082100 
MOZ000-KSZ000-082200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN-CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 437...

VALID 082100Z - 082200Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF WW 437.  SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTINUED
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER
70S/ RESULTING IN AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES OF
4000-5000 J/KG.  REGIONAL RADARS/VIS IMAGERY INDICATED TCU
DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH THIS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT THE PRESENT TIME BETWEEN
EMP-STJ.  DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PER MODIFIED OLATHE KANSAS
WIND PROFILER FOR CURRENT OJC SURFACE WIND HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS AND A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO...GIVEN
/SFC-6 KM SHEAR AT 32 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH AROUND 150 M2/S2.

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH STORMS
OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 437 AS WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE
OF E-W ORIENTED SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL MO MOVES SWD. SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD POOL AND PRE-CONVECTIVE AIR MASS
RANGES FROM 25-30 DEGREES.  STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
ERN PORTION OF WW THIS AFTERNOON...AS SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG/.

..PETERS.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

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