[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082220 
KSZ000-OKZ000-090015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082220Z - 090015Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION EXTENDING
FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO NEAR WOODWARD OK OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE CONVERGENT OVER
SCENTRAL KS/NWRN OK ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTION.
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM
5000-6000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO JUST NW
OF WOODWARD IN THE NEXT HOUR. DESPITE WEAKENING CINH...MID/HIGH
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND STILL MARGINAL CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
ONLY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. IF A STORM OR TWO DOES
FORM...THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT EARLY IN SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

38009756 37649854 37369922 37149982 36669982 36299967
36439905 36779838 37289709 37689696 

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