[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082049 
WIZ000-MNZ000-NDZ000-082245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT WED JUN 08 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN ND...NWRN AND NCENTRAL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082049Z - 082245Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM
NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR NERN ND TO THE NW OF GFK.
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN MN. WEST
OF THIS TROUGH...DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S. ATTM...ENOUGH CINH
REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE AREA LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO PORTIONS
OF NERN ND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
OVER NWRN/NCENTRAL MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH
DEWPTS SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MUCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING
CINH. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SUPPORTIVE OF ENOUGH SHEAR THAT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A WW WILL BE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MID
LEVEL WARMING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN
AND CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DESPITE STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES.

..CROSBIE.. 06/08/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

47759369 48759499 48879811 48289869 48029928 47609867
47249616 46669582 46089541 45389487 45369345 45629253