[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071920 
WIZ000-MNZ000-072015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SERN MN AND WCENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071920Z - 072015Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT. A WW
MAY BE NEED SHORTLY. 

SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A
SFC LOW NEAR STC SEWD TO NEAR LSE. 18Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM. SWLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE
SFC TROUGH WERE AIDING IN MIXING DOWN OF DRIER 850 MB AIR AND DEWPTS
HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S. GIVEN FOCUSED LIFT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND MODERATE LOW LEVEL /100-150 J/KG
FROM 0-1 KM/ SHEAR ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE SEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

44259113 45159205 45969315 46409425 44969424 43929249
43549143 

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