[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071853 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-072100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL VA SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC...CENTRAL/ERN
SC AND ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071853Z - 072100Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SERN GA NWD TO
SCENTRAL VA. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT OVER
MOST OF THE AREA...MID LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -9 TO -10 DEG AT 500 MB
WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS ESPECIALLY WHERE
CONVECTIVE STORM MERGERS OCCUR GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY.
LACK OF STRONGER FOCUSING MECHANISM AT MID LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW IN
THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

36907873 35828042 34228262 33098339 32528313 32578209
33877991 35437758 36597715 

WWWW