[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071928 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-072130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN OK/FAR NWRN AR...SERN KS...WRN AND
NCENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071928Z - 072130Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT EXPECTED ATTM WILL PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM FAR
NERN OK INTO NCENTRAL MO. SEVERAL SFC/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL
INTERACT TO AID IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/
INTENSIFICATION. 1) AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER
SCENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVERGENCE WHILE MOVING NWWD
OVER WRN/CENTRAL MO. 2) AN MCV OVER SERN KS WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER
LIFT WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WWD INTO SWRN/WCENTRAL MO. DESPITE MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...MODERATE DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE 
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...3000-4000 J/KG
MUCAPE...OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

40309342 40389475 39119520 37549552 36919564 36499576
35849519 36209369 36839304 

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