[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071806 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...

VALID 071806Z - 072000Z

SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WW 425 THROUGH 21Z.

AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE LINE OVER WRN WI REMAINS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. WEAKENING
INHIBITION IS EVIDENT BY RECENT TRENDS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/ISOLATED SVR STORMS ALONG GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL WI.
WELL DEFINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MORE SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM SWRN
WI ENEWD INTO CENTRAL WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST SVR HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 425...WHERE STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER MID LVL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL/ERN
WI...FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTIVE LINE AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..CROSBIE.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

44798773 44968902 45088992 43929104 43629128 43429120
43118800 

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