[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071454 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-071700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0954 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA/SE MN/WRN INTO CNTRL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071454Z - 071700Z

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...AS ONGOING STORMS BECOME SFC BASED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL...

A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SE MN INTO SW WI THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWATONNA TO WINONA. STORMS
NOW W OF EAU CLAIRE WI ARE ELEVATED GIVEN WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB
NOTED ON 12Z MINNEAPOLIS SOUNDING. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY AXIS...EXTENDING NORTH
FROM IA. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS NE IA AND THE SRN HALF OF WI WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
OR HIGHER. STORMS WHICH RECENTLY AFFECTED THE ROCHESTER MN AREA HAD
SEVERAL REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BECOME SFC BASED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WAVE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. 

WHILE STORMS ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BY 18-19Z SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE COMPLETELY ERODED ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN WI.

..TAYLOR.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

42139189 42319258 42699285 44059266 45239212 45299130
45319075 45278966 44938944 44168922 43428933 42968974 

WWWW