[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071436 
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-071600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 071436Z - 071600Z

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NERN
UT INTO SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL WY AND NWRN CO.  HAIL...LOCALLY
APPROACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING SEVERE VALUES...IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE MORNING.  AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AN ADDED THREAT ACROSS SWRN-SRN WY INTO NWRN CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED VERY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-25 C AT EKO/ ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN
UT AT 14Z.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ON THE 12Z SLC
SOUNDING...THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTED IN A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS.  VIS IMAGERY
SHOWED CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
700 MB THERMAL BOUNDARY.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL INTO SWRN WY/
NWRN CO TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND EXIT REGION OF A 55 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET NOSING
INTO NWRN CO/SRN WY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
LOCALIZED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WHILE VERY STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

40591136 43061134 43300934 43150748 42000678 41270671
40660719 39520944 39581114 

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