[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071008 
MNZ000-071215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071008Z - 071215Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS IN A LINE MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN THIS
MORNING.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN
MN WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE
TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING DUE
TO AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER SRN SD.
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT...MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCATED ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MN.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO A
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. THIS MAY REDUCE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MN THIS
MORNING.

..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

44279455 45459564 46939566 47119458 45929334 44549337 

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