[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070646 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...

VALID 070646Z - 070815Z

A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ND AND ERN SD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A NEW WW ATTM.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT IN PLACE EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS NE SD INTO SCNTRL MN. A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS ERN ND WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK AND ELEVATED CAPE DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT. AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DROP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE LINE
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS ERN SD...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT A CAPPING INVERSION
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW
ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...PROFILERS
SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL NOT
BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN ERN SD. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DROPS OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 06/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

48019990 45899981 43679955 43429860 43529730 44119689
45939677 48619715 48939861 48759978