[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061738 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-061945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK INTO AR/FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061738Z - 061945Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD PULSE-TYPE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES MCV FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION PROGRESSING EWD OVER FAR ERN OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE /AND
INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/ AMIDST WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. 15Z RUC
SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR REPRESENTIVE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 2000-2500
J/KG MLCAPE AMIDST ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE CINH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL AR INTO
FAR SRN MO...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO
THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE...VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER DEQUEEN AR PROFILER /LIKELY
AUGMENTED BY THE MCV/ SUGGESTS AS MUCH AS 25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THEREFORE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR PULSE-TYPE/EPISODIC
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM FAR ERN OKLAHOMA INTO WRN/CNTRL AR AND FAR SRN MO.

..GUYER.. 06/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

35539482 37139468 37209298 36539091 35379101 33909208
33539238 33479379 33739451 

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