[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061734 
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-061830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA/MD AND PORTIONS OF SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061734Z - 061830Z

WW WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA TO SERN PA.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH OVER WRN VA FROM ABOUT
40 S ROA TO LYH TO CHO TO 30 SE MRB.  VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WV
INTO WRN VA AND NWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA...WITH NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THESE REGIONS AND MOVE
EWD.  AIR MASS ALONG/E OF HIGHER TERRAIN HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE 2500+ J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL BE PULSE. 
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE PA
BORDER WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER.  ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN SFC-3 KM
LAPSE RATES TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS MOVE EWD.

..PETERS.. 06/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

37957937 39147831 39727747 40127583 38997631 37437694
36937773 36797897 37097985 

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