[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051842 
MTZ000-052045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...MT

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 051842Z - 052045Z

LOCALIZED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH 21-22Z.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED. THIS IS MAINLY
OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MONTANA...WHERE WEAK
BUT MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS BENEATH DIFLUENT REGIME
DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE STILL WEAK...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM/DEEPEN WITH MIXING...CAPE MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1500
J/KG.  THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS IN THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.  A FEW STORMS MAY SLOWLY
DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF
GREAT FALLS...WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING/SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.

..KERR.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

47141230 47931287 48311239 48371031 48290880 47770751
46630658 45690664 45410807 45681004 45881099 46301140
46661191