[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051719 
MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-051845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051719Z - 051845Z

SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NEWD OVER
MN...WITH -14C 500 MB COLD POCKET CENTERED OVER NW MN PER UPPER AIR
DIAGNOSTICS. MCV ALSO NOTED OVER NE IA. COMBINED WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT...MODEST INSOLATION OVER ERN/SRN MN AND NRN IA HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED
OBSERVED 12Z MPX RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS...WITH MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG.

INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL ACROSS ERN/SCNTRL MN INTO NRN IA GIVEN UPPER COLD POCKET AND
MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
EWD INTO WRN WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

45909419 47879318 47679096 45029053 42689070 42729464
43739528 44219502