[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051933 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-052130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN INDIANA INTO LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051933Z - 052130Z

CONTINUE TORNADO WW 404 AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 406.

RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AHEAD OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...WHICH HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF MORE VIGOROUS TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CLUSTERED
SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA...WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NEXT FEW HOURS.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL.  SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING
IS LIKELY NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.  THIS MAY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE COLD POOL WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT WEST THROUGH
NORTH OF FORT WAYNE INTO THE LANSING AND...PERHAPS...ANN ARBOR AREAS
BY 23Z.

OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

..KERR.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

41408683 41958615 42508592 42888497 42768444 42448388
41778414 41058505 40218637 40188722 40718722