[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 051656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051655 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-051800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...INDIANA...LOWER MI...PARTS OF NW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 051655Z - 051800Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.

LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UNIMPEDED SURFACE HEATING
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA/OHIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN.  LATEST OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000 J/KG...WITH
LITTLE OR NO INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS THIS REGION.  FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW-
LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA
NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE THROUGH THE LAFAYETTE IN/KALAMAZOO MI AREA. 
THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED NOW LIFTING FROM
ILLINOIS TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.  FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 18-20Z.  IF THIS
OCCURS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BY PEAK HEATING HOURS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES...WITH STORMS ENHANCED BY MODERATELY SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME.

..KERR.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

44858561 44198583 43308539 42608552 41778660 39848734
38668756 37848739 38828517 40588419 41488384 42048309