[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050912 
TXZ000-OKZ000-051045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 050912Z - 051045Z

A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
ACROSS SW OK AND NORTH TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM MO EXTENDING SWWD INTO OK AND NORTH
TX. DUE TO A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED
AND THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NE TX IS LIKELY
ELEVATED IN NATURE AND IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH
ADEQUATE SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

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