[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050817 
ARZ000-050945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403...

VALID 050817Z - 050945Z

A WEAKENING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR.
INITIALLY...THE LINE MAY HAVE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE BUT SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY EAST OF
WW 403.

A CONVECTIVE LINE IN WRN AR IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. THE INSTABILITY
AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES
EWD INTO CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LINE MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET
INTO WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS
WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DUE TO A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD AWAY
FROM AR. THE DECREASING ASCENT COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THE LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 403.

..BROYLES.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...

34309310 34379369 34659369 35669313 36339278 36379156
35619144 34379222