[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 050300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050300 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-050430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NERN MO...WRN/NWRN IL...SWRN WI...AND FAR
SERN MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397...

VALID 050300Z - 050430Z

TORNADO WATCH 397 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

ARC OF FORWARD PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORMS FROM JASPER COUNTY IA TO
SULLIVAN COUNTY MO AT 0240Z WILL CONTINUE EWD AT 35-40KT. THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50KT AT DSM AND CNC AT 2Z.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED LONG-LIVED CELLS. SEPARATE
CLUSTER OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CONTINUES NWD OUT OF FAR NERN MO
INTO SERN IA. HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...HOWEVER...CURRENT NWD
STORM MOTIONS ARE LIMITING 0-1KM SRH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH
THESE CELLS...AS AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100MB MLCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZATION
OF UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE LINE...AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD
MAINTAIN/FOCUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NERN MO AND MUCH OF
E-CENTRAL IA THROUGH 6Z.

..BANACOS.. 06/05/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

40169269 42109268 43389240 43609074 42878899 39318931
39068987 39029222 

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