[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041805 
KSZ000-MOZ000-042000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041805Z - 042000Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. 
IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS COULD INITIATE AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING IS ONGOING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...ROUGHLY NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  BUILDING/ DEEPENING CUMULUS
ARE ALREADY BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION.

CAP IS STILL SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BY PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD BE BROKEN...AS EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET NOSING OUT OF THE
TEAS PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS EASTERN KANSAS.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY. 
BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW
NEAR 70F ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS.  MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL
APPROACH 4000 J/KG WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS... SUPPORTIVE OF VERY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS LIKELY
IN STRONGEST CELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREA AROUND
SALINA/MANHATTAN/EMPORIA.

..KERR.. 06/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

38959790 39629745 39919647 39919541 39779508 39259497
38889496 38209545 37849635 37469730 37689844 

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