[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041714 
NEZ000-041915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041714Z - 041915Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT WITHIN NEXT
FEW HOURS...AND POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS STILL READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...AND SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA NEXT FEW HOURS.  FORCING NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS
SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR SIDNEY NEBRASKA...WHICH LIKELY
WILL SPREAD INTO/ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z.

WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY ADVANCED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...
PRECLUDING RETURN OF BETTER GULF RETURN FLOW...SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. 
THIS APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.  GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.  THOUGH AREA IS GENERALLY REMOVED FROM CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
JET...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT.  BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE
OF ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY
PRESENT NEAR LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.

..KERR.. 06/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

41270184 41740099 41740001 41499928 40879884 40489929
40560015 40240070 40500182 

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