[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041912 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/N CNTRL OK INTO W CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041912Z - 042115Z

TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ISSUANCE OF ONE OR MORE WWS
...WHICH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.

AREAS ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING LINGERS BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT.  MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST UPSTREAM OF DRY LINE...AND...AS
THIS DEVELOPS EASTWARD NEXT FEW HOURS...FORCING LIKELY WILL AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING..
ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. HOWEVER...VERY
UNSTABLE AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

INITIATION OF ACTIVITY BY AROUND 21Z APPEARS POSSIBLE...PERHAPS MOST
LIKELY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY INTO
THE VICINITY OF WICHITA...BEFORE FURTHER SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF DRY LINE THROUGH THE WICHITA
FALLS/ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO AREAS.

..KERR.. 06/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

36319856 37169812 37689732 37229674 35419696 33959751
32619852 31879930 31610023 32180062 34039891 

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