[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040645 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 AM CDT SAT JUN 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...

VALID 040645Z - 040815Z

A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 388 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
AND A REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THE WATCH WOULD LIKELY
BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EAST OF WW 388.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NW
OK INTO SE KS. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH
COMBINED WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS HELPING SUSTAIN THE STORMS IN WW 338. IN ADDITION...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS KS AND WRN MO
WITH STRONG ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS SE KS. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS
CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
SUPERCELL THREAT GOING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS IN SE KS AND NE
OK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS.
ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND THE STRONGER
MULTICELL STORMS IN WW 338.

..BROYLES.. 06/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36739382 36729461 36689592 36529680 36809710 37649699
37869663 38079544 37939389 37779361 37169371 

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