[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 040219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040219 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR...EXTREME SWRN MO AND
SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...

VALID 040219Z - 040245Z

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 387 EXPIRES AT 03Z.

BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ABOUT AN UPPER LOW
OVER SWRN KS.  STRONGEST STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO FAVOR A ZONE ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED STRONGLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AS THE STORMS TRAVEL
FARTHER N AND E...THEY ARE LIKELY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEEDING OFF OF INCREASING LLJ EMANATING FROM N
TX/CNTRL OK.  THOUGH THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE
CHAOTIC AND ARE CHANGING RAPIDLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES...THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS IS THE LIMITED AVAILABLE
CAPE...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED BUOYANCY MAY OCCUR AS THE
LLJ INCREASES. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
STILL CONTAIN HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.  

UNLESS THERE IS AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY BY
03Z...AN EXTENSION IN THE CURRENT WATCH MAY NOT BE REQUIRED.

..RACY.. 06/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36129690 37409807 38689634 38689556 36069350 

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