[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 032111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032111 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-032315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO/SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 032111Z - 032315Z

ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
ERN OK/SE KS AND WRN AR/SW MO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.

EAST OF OK PANHANDLE CYCLONE/VORTICITY MAXIMA...ARCING LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXISTS ACROSS ERN OK...WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING CU
INVOF THIS FEATURE...WHILE MESOHIGH/COLD POOL EXISTS ACROSS SE KS.
WARM SECTOR AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF THESE FEATURES IS RATHER
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
RANGING FROM 1000-1500 ACROSS FAR SE KS/SW MO TO 2500-3000 J/KG INTO
ECNTRL OK/WCNTRL AR. INITIALLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS
MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER SE KS COLD POOL AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WET
MICROBURST THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35239547 36409626 36739737 37559729 37669520 38479355
38079242 36639249 34479333 34469490 

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