[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031658 
OKZ000-TXZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS SRN TX PNHDL/NW TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031658Z - 031900Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF NEW WW.

CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EVIDENT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF LUBBOCK...
WHERE LOW LEVELS REMAIN WARM BENEATH MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL...SUPPORTING STEEP LAPSE RATES.  

LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG RETREATING CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY INTO THE CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.  HAIL POTENTIAL IS ALREADY
INCREASING WITH STORMS...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE FURTHER
DURING THE 18-21Z TIME PERIOD...AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  SHEAR
PROFILES BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. 
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

34000162 34480085 34810019 35139904 35029764 34479718
33339800 32849879 33059986 33520068 

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