[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031519 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-031715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT FRI JUN 03 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...

VALID 031519Z - 031715Z

CONTINUE WW.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS/EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ENHANCEMENT
OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. 
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD
OUT OF WEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
EVOLUTION OF GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LIKELY WILL CONTINUE.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS BASED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION
LAYER...BUT AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME ROOTED IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG.
 AS SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK...CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GREATER
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 06/03/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36750016 36129978 35279876 34149760 34089623 35079511
37139564 37689854 37739971 

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